Even the motorist least interested in geopolitics will now be forced to follow with concern the crisis between the Russia and theUkraine. Because the situation, already dramatic for people living on the border between the two countries, could also have enormous economic repercussions at the international level.
Events in the eastern Donbass region have been exerting pressure on oil prices for some time now.essence and you diesel, but the cost of refueling is not the only phenomenon that threatens the pockets of car owners. Or those who want to buy a new one. Let’s take a closer look at what could happen now.
The danger of oil
Let’s start by saying that the escalating conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is just the latest chapter in the spike in fuel prices that began months ago in the wake of the pandemic’s long tail.
Thus, filling a tank today can flirt or even exceed 2 euros per litre. This mainly affects petrol, but in some cases it can even affect diesel, especially at some motorway service stations.
The Ukrainian crisis, which also involves the European Union and the United States, is upsetting the prices of oil, as well as gas, of which Russia is one of the world’s leading exporters. And Europe is heavily dependent on Russian raw materials.
The market therefore fears that energy will find itself at the center of the conflict, with sanctions on one side and retaliation on the other. With its strong production of oil and gas unparalleled in the world, Moscow can influence prices at any time, with the risk of an economic war and an energy crisis with ever higher prices at the pump.
Long months ahead
The main problem for motorists is that, even if the Kremlin does not go that far, we are unlikely to return to a normal situation anytime soon, as high crude prices will struggle to come down, in particular due to the short-term interest of other producing countries. In short, gasoline and diesel will remain expensive for several months.
In fact, things could even get worse: “We could see oil prices break through the lows very quickly. $100 a barrelwith an additional $10 increase if there are more sanctions against Russia”warns Sri Paravaikkarasu, director of Asia Oil – FGE, in an interview with BloombergTV.
For now, however, the crude oil continues its upward course, already getting dangerously close to 100 dollars a barrel. As of 11:20 a.m. today, February 22, 2022, Brent was trading at $98.54/bbl, one of the highest levels since 2014. Meanwhile, some major oil companies are raising so-called recommended prices, with impact on prices at the pump found in service stations.
There is little hope that theOPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries extended to Russia) is lending a hand, because Ihsan Abdul Jabbar, the Iraqi energy minister, says there will be no increase in oil production to give respite in the market: “We believe this is not necessary. We will secure demand by sticking to current supply plans.”
It doesn’t stop there
As if that were not enough, the expected acceleration of fuel prices (and energy) means that we will all have to reckon with a inflation “imported” faster and faster. The costs of energy and transport are reflected in everything we consume, which has the effect of gradually reducing the purchasing power of families. And that’s not all, because this situation will also have a fatal impact on the interest ratewhich become less and less advantageous.
These are factors that affect everyone, without exception. There is also the other part related to raw materials, which could affect the automotive sector in particular. Russia is a major exporter ofsteel and D’aluminiumfor example, but also nickel, which is of particular interest for electric cars. The risk is that here, too, further increases in raw materials could lead to higher car prices.
Price at the pump
After having opened and closed this parenthesis, let us return to the price of fuels and see where they are today in France.
According to data from the Carbu.com website, the national average price of self-service petrol amounts to 1.862 euro/litre for the 98, the 95 varying from 1.801 to 1.774 euro/litre (respectively for E5 and E10) . As for the price of diesel fuelstill self-service, the average is 1.719 euros/litre.
the LPG is 0.916 euros/litre, while the price of CNG is on average 1.078.